New Hampshire Primary Observations

Now, the battle is joined. New Hampshire provided the country with a serious nominating contest in both parties by refusing to buy what the media and Iowa were selling. A few observations.

How ya’ like me now?  I’m sure it must have been difficult for Hillary Clinton to resist the urge to gloat.  After days of Hillary-is-toast coverage and polls predicting an Obama blowout, last night’s victory was a complete surprise.  According to media reports, internal Obama and Clinton polls, Hillary was going down by 14 and 11 points respectively.  Now, she can look at the media who pronounced her dead and ask: How ya’ like me now?

Sista’s are doing it for themselves.  New Hampshire women carried Clinton over the finish line.  New Hampshire isn’t Iowa.  New Hampshire is used to voting for women at the top of the ballot, having recently elected Jean Shaheen for governor.  Conversely, Iowa and Mississippi are the only states in the country never to have elected a woman to Congress or as Governor.   Days of Clinton bashing, the Saturday candidate’s forum pile on, her voice cracking in response to a question from a voter, and concern about crowning Obama too early all seem to have aggravated enough women to either change from their first choice to support Clinton or chose came in off the sidelines to vote for her.  Either way, women made themselves heard in the Granite State. 

Crow-eating time for the Hillary haters.  Some supporters of John Edwards and Barack hate Hillary Clinton.  The evidence can be found all over the place in the wake of the Iowa caucuses, particularly among some of the bloggerazzi.  The Obamaniacs took a particular delight in Clinton’s third place finish, as if winning Iowa actually meant winning the nomination.  They are joined by gloating, short-sighted media that threw Clinton under the bus after Iowa and ramped up their Obama-as-Second-Coming theme.  They did not distinguish themselves between Iowa and New Hampshire.  They are now trying to figure out how the polls got it wrong.  They need to focus on how their coverage of Obama went so over-the-top.  Then, maybe, they’ll be able to avoid the egg on their collective face.

The Biden effect.  I know what you’re thinking: “What effect?”  Joe Biden barely registered among Democratic voters all over the country and failed miserably in the Iowa caucuses.  However, Biden ran on his undeniable experience and his departure could have an impact on the nomination fight.  His supporters placed that issue at the top of their list of attributes and the bulk of them will likely gravitate toward Clinton.  These extra voters may well be enough to help Clinton over the top in closely contested states.  Clinton beat Obama 71 percent to 5 percent among voters who stated experience was very important in a nominee.  While everyone keeps talking about change, the reality is experience is a critical need.  If experience becomes the most important variable, then Clinton will walk away with the nomination.

McCain the resilient.  I was so wrong about John McCain.  I wrote a column a few months ago saying that he wouldn’t even make it to New Hampshire.  However, something began to happen over the last two months that made last night possible.  First, the other Republican candidates never took the nomination by the throat.  They are an undistinguished, flawed bunch that allowed McCain to stay in the game.  Second, he began to get a second look by New Hampshire conservatives, particularly important newspaper editorial boards.  Lastly, he stayed positive.  His comments in New Hampshire on the night of the Iowa caucuses about rejecting negative politics were widely broadcast and, in my opinion, resonated with New Hampshire Republicans.  There is a silver lining in this for Mitt Romney.  He beat McCain in New Hampshire among Republican voters.  Independents put McCain over the top.

Now we move to Michigan, Nevada, and South Carolina.  On the Democratic side, the pressure now shifts to Barack Obama to prove that Iowa was not a fluke.  On the Republican side, it’s now up to Mitt Romney to prove that he should stay in the race. 

Michael K. Fauntroy is an assistant professor of public policy at George Mason University and author of Republicans and the Black Vote.  A registered Independent, he blogs at: MichaelFauntroy.com