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Why Obama's Nine-Point Lead May Be Much Smaller

An ABC News-Washington Post poll released Wednesday showed Barack Obama with a nine-point lead over John McCain is noteworthy.  It's the first poll to show such a lead for either candidate for some time now. 

The lead, fueled by voter anger over the economic crisis now engulfing Wall Street, may actually be a mirage.  That's because of the findings, released last week, of an Associated Press-Yahoo News poll which suggests that Obama will lose six percentage points from whatever he is polling on Election Day because he is an African American. 

According to AP:

Deep-seated racial misgivings could cost Barack Obama the White House if the election is close, according to an AP-Yahoo News poll that found one-third of white Democrats harbor negative views toward blacks — many calling them "lazy," "violent," responsible for their own troubles.

The poll, conducted with Stanford University, suggests that the percentage of voters who may turn away from Obama because of his race could easily be larger than the final difference between the candidates in 2004 — about two and one-half percentage points.

If you accept that number (and it seems reasonable to me, though it needs to be independently validated) and apply a six point "Black Tax" to that nine-point lead, then you're left with a three-percentage point lead.  Here's where things get trickier.  A three-point lead is usually about the margin of error for most polls, which means that a nine-point Obama lead may actually still be a tied race.  Amazing.  This identifies a significant problem for Obama that may actually cost him the election.

If it turns out that Obama needs at least a 10-point lead to inoculate himself against the possibility of racial prejudice rearing its ugly head at the ballot box, then he has a serious problem.  And so do we.  The whole world is watching and if the polls turn out to be wrong because of race, then our tattered image internationally will be damaged even further.

Michael K. Fauntroy is an assistant professor of public policy at George Mason University and a specialist in race and politics.

Obama Will Pay a "Black Tax" in November

The recently released AP-Yahoo News poll is further evidence that race, or rather, America’s convoluted reaction to race, presents a reality for Barack Obama and his campaign that is beginning to come into focus.  This race is far closer than it should be and those who try to downplay the role of race to this point have their heads stuck in the sand.  Obama will pay a “Black tax” in November that may cost him the presidency.

Obama should be walking away with this election.  He has been a political phenomenon since bursting onto the national scene at the 2004 Democratic National Convention.  No politician in this country has received the volume of favorable coverage as Obama.  He’s running against an incredibly unpopular Republican Party, whose leader – President Bush – has operated under historically high disapproval ratings for most of his second term.  The party’s standard bearer in the upcoming election – John McCain – has so badly contorted himself to curry the approval of his party’s right wing that he is now unrecognizable to moderates and independents that fueled his rise to presidential contender status nearly a decade ago and saved him from ruin during the Republican presidential nomination fight.  And, oh, by the way, McCain will be 72 by the time he’s inaugurated, should he win in November.  This nation is not kind to the elderly, so McCain is also facing a sub-rosa ageism.

Some analysts have pointed to McCain’s resiliency, his “game changing” choice of Sarah Palin as his running mate, and Obama’s relative inexperience as among the reasons why this race is as close as it is.  These are all valid and legitimate reasons for why the race is as close as it is, but they don’t tell the whole story.  Any analysis of the contest that does not prominently include the sticky wicket of racism is incomplete.

The poll, however, shows why McCain’s resiliency, Palin, and Obama’s inexperience may not matter in November: 40 percent of all Whites surveyed admitted to holding negative views of African Americans (one can reasonably infer that some who hold such views didn’t admit so to the pollster).  This number may help explain why Obama is still having trouble winning over some disaffected Hilary Clinton supporters and why independent voters have not come around as expected.  A particularly worrisome finding is that there was not even a majority of self-identified White Democrats who viewed African Americans as friendly, law-abiding, good neighbors, dependable, or hardworking.  Self-identified White Republicans had consistently harsher views of African Americans than all Whites surveyed, White independents, or White Democrats.  The bottom line finding is the suggestion that Obama’s support would be six percentage points higher if there were no White racial prejudice.

Obama has continually downplayed race and any impact it can have on his campaign.  Perhaps this is for public consumption while his private position is more closely aligned with reality.  Be that as it may, the poll suggests that Obama won’t lose much by speaking more authoritatively on the possibility that he could be denied the presidency just because he’s Black.  Those inclined to not support him because he’s “uppity” or an elitist, or other racial code words, won’t come around no matter how much he runs away from race.

Some have suggested that losing six points by virtue of being Black won’t be enough to keep Obama from winning.  I say get you head out of the sand and look at the polls.  The four closest battleground states – Virginia, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida – are all within the margin of error, according to a poll average conducted by RealClearPolitics.  That’s certainly enough to allow the six point “Black tax” that Obama will pay to move at least a few of those states to McCain.  That could be enough to cost Obama the election.

Racial prejudice and fear of the unknown has long lead people to vote against their self-interest.  Indeed, part of the Republicans’ ability to get poor and working-class voters to support the party despite its fealty to corporate interests at the expense of those on the low end of the income spectrum is largely attributable to people voting against their self-interest.  Don’t expect these extraordinary times to miraculously bring clarity to some voters.  Old habits are hard to break.

Michael K. Fauntroy is an assistant professor of public policy at George Mason University and conducts research on race and politics.

Michael Fauntroy Discusses "Lipstick on a Pig" on the CBS Early Show

The "fallout" over Barack Obama's "lipstick-on-a-pig" comment is ridiculous.  Here is a CBS Early Show story on the topic.  I discuss the "controversy" with anchor Maggie Rodriguez (I invade your screen about 2:45 seconds in; I wish someone would have told me that my collar looked so crazy!).  My overall view is that every minute the Obama campaign has to respond to this foolishness is a minute that they can't make the argument that Palin is unqualified.  The McCain campaign is doing a good job of keeping the Obama campaign off-balance by making mountains out of molehills.

It might be one thing if Obama said "lipstick on a pitbull."  Then, okay, that's a diss.  But so what?  Candidates diss each other all the time.  Big deal.

Watch CBS Videos Online

Michael Fauntroy Discusses Black Republicans and Obama on CNN

I'm quoted in this CNN story that aired on Friday, September 5 and explored the quandary that some African American Republicans face regarding Barack Obama.  Some are having a difficult time resisting the pull of history and are preparing to cross party lines and vote for Obama.

I think this may be a continuing story throughout the remainder of the campaign.  I wouldn't be surprised if Obama ended up with 95-97 percent of the Black vote.  An uptick of a few points in states like Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia, could be enough to tilt those red states blue.  If that happens, then he'll win 40 states and make history.

Just so you know:  I am not now, nor have I ever been, a Republican.

Walter Fauntroy on Barack Obama's Historic Candidacy

Here is a CNN clip featuring my uncle, Rev. Walter Fauntroy, discussing the historic significance of Barack Obama's campaign.  As a student at Virginia Union University, Fauntroy met the 22-year-old Martin Luther King, Jr., himself an ordained Baptist minister. They forged a friendship and Fauntroy joined King's Southern Christian Leadership Conference (SCLC).  Fauntroy also helped to coordinate the seminal 1963 March on Washington at which King gave his famous "I Have a Dream" speech.

As director of the Washington Bureau of Dr. King’s Southern Christian Leadership Conference, Mr. Fauntroy served as D.C. Ccordinator of the Historic March on Washington for Jobs and Freedom in 1963, coordinator of the Selma to Montgomery Voting Rights March in 1965, and the Meredith Mississippi Freedom March in 1966. President Johnson appointed him Vice Chairman of the White House Conference on Civil Rights in 1966.

Fauntroy is uniquely positioned to place Obama's candidacy into a larger civil rights context.