MichaelFauntroy.com

Television Clip: Michael Fauntroy Discusses Barack Obama's Candidacy on Voice of America Television

Here is a clip from the Wednesday, October 29th edition of Straight Talk Africa, which airs on Voice of America Television.  The program airs throughout the continent and the subject matter was Barack Obama's presidential campaign and its potential impact on Africa.  I come in at about 6:00 minutes and discuss Obama's candidacy with Maini Kiai, a Kenyan, and Africa Program Open Society Institute African Policy Scholar Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars.  Kiai is a former chairman of the Kenyan National Commission on Human Rights.

Audio Clip: Michael Fauntroy Discusses Hot Button Political Issues on NPR's News and Notes with Farai Chideya

I had the occasion to participate in a discussion on social security, immigration, and abortion on the Thursday, October 30, edition of NPR's News and Notes with Farai Chideya. I'm on with Princella Smith, Visiting Fellow for the Independent Women's Voice and Chief Advocate for American Solutions.  Here is the clip.

Obama Should Thank Bush

Barack Obama is about to become the next President of the United States and he should thank George W. Bush for this opportunity.  Without Bush, the change argument on which Obama has based his candidacy, doesn’t ring with the same sense of urgency that it does now.  Obama’s relative inexperience doesn’t matter.  I think an argument can be made that his judgment, touted as significant, doesn’t matter in this election.  Obama’s success is based on more than his personal attributes or the questions surrounding his opponent.  His success represents a personal repudiation of the Bush presidency that has reduced John McCain to running in the shadow of failure.

The Bush presidency, a failure on numerous levels, has enraged the electorate so much that a door has opened and we are now at the threshold of an earth shattering change in American politics.  From a foreign policy that has destroyed America’s image around the world, to an economic policy that helped lead to a financial and credit crisis that may take years to overcome and has greatly expanded the gulf between rich and poor, and an approach to the growth of government that many of his fellow conservatives in revolt, Bush has set the table for Obama and, in so doing, made it virtually impossible for McCain, or any other Republican for that matter, to win.

Bush killed the McCain campaign and now the Republican nominee has to campaign with the weight of a thousand failures on this back.  All candidates running to keep control of the White House run in the shadow of the sitting president.  Sometimes, in the case of then-Vice President George H. W. Bush, that can be a positive.  President Ronald Reagan had a 55 percent approval rating during the last months of his presidency.  Consequently, even with conservative questions about Bush’s fealty to their ideology, he was able to keep the base in tact and the White House for the Republicans.

Al Gore, in trying to escape the mixed shadow cast by Bill Clinton’s presidency, ran against a candidate calling for change.  Gore lost, in part, because he understood that the scandal outweighs the good in an incumbent.  While it’s easy to fault him for not attaching himself to the Clinton economic boom, the reality was the impeachment debacle made that nearly impossible.  He couldn’t afford the luxury of being very close to Clinton.

As a consequence of Bush’s failures, McCain, has had to take his “maverick” reputation to new heights by taking chances that a nominee with a strong incumbent president would never have to consider.  Sarah Palin’s pick, while energizing the conservative base, has proven to be a disaster.  Yes, the base will turn out.  But as poll after poll has shown, fewer people identify themselves as conservatives or Republicans than in recent years.  McCain will be getting the same slice of a smaller pie.  Meanwhile, he chased independent voters into Obama’s arms, notwithstanding their skepticism of the Democratic nominee.

While those enraptured by the change argument may disagree, Obama’s coming win may ultimately prove to be about something that is everything in politics: timing.  Yes, he has a compelling message, but he’s also running against an incompetent administration.  Finally, Bush is useful for something.  He killed the Republican Party and the conservative movement.  I would say “rest in peace,” but that would offer a condolence I could never really mean.

Michael K. Fauntroy is a professor, author, and political commentator whose most recent television appearances include the NewsHour with Jim Lehrer and the Early Show.

Video: Michael Fauntroy Discusses the Presidential Election on MyVoiceDC.com

Here is video of a recent discussion of the election, polling, and race that I did on MyVoiceDC.com.  Thanks to Wisdom Martin and Roz Plater for inviting me to their webcast. 

Obama is Waaaasup!

Here is a blast-from-the-past made new for this political season.  Enjoy a little levity and reality and have a good weekend.

Video: Michael Fauntroy Discusses Race and the Presidential Election on the NewsHour with Jim Lehrer

Here is video of my appearance on the Wednesday, October 22nd edition of the NewsHour with Jim Lehrer.  Gwen Ifill moderated a discussion that included Andrew Kohut of the Pew Research Center, Eddie Glaude of Princeton University, and your truly as we discussed the role of race in the presidential election.  I have a tremendous amount of appreciation and respect for the NewsHour, so it was a great honor for me to participate in the discussion.

Sarah Palin on Weekend Update

Here's a little political humor to get you through the day.

Race Enters Race, Stage Right

Among the numerous reasons why African Americans have so comprehensively rejected the Republican Party is now on display in the presidential campaign.  Senator John McCain’s campaign, directly and indirectly, is using race and, to a lesser extent religious bigotry, to prime voters around the country to enter the ballot box believing that Senator Barack Obama’s race helps make him unfit for the presidency.  In so doing, McCain and his running mate Sarah Palin have provided safe harbor to those racists among the electorate who are looking for a way to express their twisted view of people that don’t look like them.  They have transitioned from being candidates to magnets and the campaign is worse off as a result.  What’s sad about all this is that, given what we know about the role of race in American politics, is that it has worked before and should not be overlooked next month. 

From Barry Goldwater’s states’ rights to Richard Nixon’s “law and order” and from the Reagan Democrats to some of today’s Obama-is-an-Arab Republicans, White working-class racial conservatives have voted against their economic self interest by responding to Republican candidates who talked the amorphous double entendre’ language of racial politics – words and philosophies that have two meanings, racial and non-racial. The McCain campaign – as indicated by it’s surrogates (including Republican Party leaders) and some staffers and voters – is determined to win by any means necessary.  That includes the willingness to scare voters into believing that Obama is not in the tradition of (White male) American presidents and a terrorist sympathizer dedicated doing the bidding of Middle Eastern hatemongers who live to destroy the United States.

It may not matter now, though.  The economic crisis now engulfing the country may lead some racially bigoted voters who might otherwise vote their worst instincts to open their eyes and vote their self-interests.  Let’s only hope.

Michael K. Fauntroy is an assistant professor of public policy at George Mason University and author of Republicans and the Black Vote.

I Don't Even Know What to Make of This

I'm not one to be skeptical of legitimate medical conditions and this is serious.  I don't doubt what I see on this video, but I have to believe that something can be done, right? What do you make of this?

Battleground State Breakdown

This is the point in a presidential election cycle when the "battleground states" – those which are undecided and likely to be close for the rest of the contest – begin to take shape.  That's in part because of state developments including "hot" state and congressional races and controversial ballot initiatives.  The hot races and ballot initiatives are critical in that they help drive voters to the polls and may have an impact on which presidential candidate wins the state.  Indeed, George W. Bush did as well as he did in some states during the 2000 and 2004 presidential because of the high turnouts attributed to the use of initiatives on gay marriage.  Following is a breakdown of five battleground states that Senators John McCain and Barack Obama are fighting over.

Virginia

Virginia has 13 electoral votes and Obama has a slim lead of about two points in most polls.  The race will be decided in the northern Washington, D.C. suburbs, where growth in the immigrant population, coupled with large numbers of hyper-education government contractors and technology workers have changed the demography of the region and made the state "bluer" in recent years.  There is also economic anxiety as the western D.C. suburbs are choking under the force of foreclosure rates that rival some of the worst in the country.

The hot race is for the 11th congressional district seat being vacated by Republican Representative Tom Davis, who is retiring.  Gerry Connolly, a popular Democrat, is poised to win the seat, which would represent a significant Democratic pickup.  There are also two former governors – Democrat Mark Warner and Republican Jim Gilmore – seeking to succeed retiring Senator John Warner.  Mark Warner’s lead is north of 20 points.

Much has been made of the “bluing” of Virginia and this election will show us just how much change has occurred in the Old Dominion.  Long a conservative bastion and birthplace of the Christian Conservative Movement, the state has begun a movement toward the Democratic Party. The current governor and his predecessor, who is contesting a U.S. Senate seat this year, both supported Obama and are putting their operations to work for him. The northern suburbs of Washington, D.C. have become home to many highly educated professionals and immigrants that have not been as receptive to the GOP’s message.  Obama also is doing surprisingly well in the Tidewater section of the state which, with its military bases and Rev. Pat Robertson, who is based in Virginia Beach, is usually solid Republican.  Virginia presents a big pickup opportunity for Obama.

Florida

Florida is the biggest prize among states that are too close to call and Obama has a three-point lead in a state that usually goes Republican.  There are two interesting races to watch, with Miami-area Representatives – Mario Diaz-Balart and Lincoln Diaz-Balart – both engaged in closer than expected contests. 

There are six ballot initiatives this year, some of which are likely to drive conservatives to the polls.  The most notable of the questions is one that will define marriage as a union between a husband and wife and does not recognize civil unions.  This could help McCain pull out a squeaker.

Florida, with it’s diverse mix of residents, has a history of close presidential contests.  This likely will be no different.  The Cuban population, which is critical in the southern part of the state, is going through a generation divide here with younger voters showing signs of breaking for Obama, the Democrat.  Cubans have historically been loyal to the GOP.

Ohio

Ohio, a perennial swing state, has 20 electoral votes and Obama is clinging to a two-point lead.  He will likely benefit from high turnout in the race to succeed retiring Republican Representative Deborah Pryce.  She barely beat Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy, who is back to take on Republican nominee Steve Stivers.

A ballot initiative on casino gaming in Wilmington, with statewide proceed distribution, could possibly help boost conservative turnout.  However, there aren’t any exceptionally controversial ballot initiatives this year and, given the drubbing the GOP took in 2006, there isn’t much of a Republican turnout infrastructure, so GOP turnout could be a problem.

Missouri

The “Show Me” state has 11 electoral votes and McCain has a two-point lead in most polls.  There is a hot House race featuring the former mayor of Kansas City trying to unseat a Republican incumbent.  There is a big ballot initiative that could spur Republican turnout – a constitutional change that would make English the official state language.  Obama barely squeaked by Hilary Clinton in the primary and Black turnout will be critical for him.  If Black voters show up in unusually high numbers, then Obama likely will win.

Colorado

Colorado’s nine electoral votes may be decisive this year and Obama holds a four-point lead.  Current Representative Mark Udall and former Representative Bob Schaffer are vying to succeed Senator Wayne Allard, who is retiring; Udall has a mid-single digit lead in most polls.

Colorado leads the nation with 18 ballot initiatives, some of which seem designed to bring Republicans to the polls including, abortion, anti-affirmative action, campaign finance reform, and a prohibition on mandatory labor union membership and dues.

Look for the Latino/Latina vote to play a big role here, as the proportion of voters in this bloc has increased tremendously over the years.  The Republican Party, through it’s immigration stance, has really been damaged among these voters, which complicates McCain’s task.  His western roots, coupled with a high conservative turnout may be enough to bring him across the line.