Professor. Political Analyst. Pundit.

Charlie Crist’s Declaration of Independence

It’s been six weeks since Florida Governor Charlie Crist announced that he would seek the open Florida U.S. Senate seat as an Independent.  This decision represented a major break from the Republican Party under whose banner he won the governorship.  While that could be seen as his own political Declaration of Independence, his recent veto of a bill that forces women seeking abortions to first view an ultrasound and requires doctors to describe the fetus shows that partisan independence reveals the true Crist – an ideologically moderate politician who was forced to kowtow to the right wing of his party to win elections. Crist’s independence should be a lesson to both voters and prospective candidates – rigid ideology is not in the best interest of public policy because it forces good people out of the policy debate.

I changed my party affiliation a few years back from Democrat to Independent.  I’m still the same ideologically, but I did it, in part, because I wanted to call it as I see it and not be worried about hearing from party hacks telling me that I wasn’t supporting “so-and-so” like a good Democrat would.  I’ve found independence to be great.  It’s intellectually freeing and I really believe Crist will grow more politically as a result of his independence.

I’m not saying his veto is solely about political courage; he’s been on both sides of the abortion debate and I’m certain there was some general election political calculus in his decision.  However, there should be no doubt that this decision would not have even been an option for Crist if he were still a Republican.  While the true Crist is now anathema to the Grand Old Party, the fact that his view of ideology is more in line with the majority of Floridians than the party he left should be disconcerting.  How do we know that his view is more in line with the voters?  Well, he’s been ahead in the polls since his party switch and, barring any major unforeseen screw ups, he is the favorite to beat both Republican nominee Marco Rubio and Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek in November.  While he’s still to the right of me ideologically, I want to salute Crist and his Declaration of Independence.

Michael K. Fauntroy is an associate professor of public policy at George Mason University and author of the book Republicans and the Black Vote.  He blogs at MichaelFauntroy.com.

Harold Ford Has Some ‘Splainin’ to Do

As you know by now, Harold Ford, Jr. is considering challenging New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand in this year's Democratic primary.  Originally from Tennessee and bringing to the Empire State a political philosophy that probably can't get him elected, he is going to have to explain how many of his past statements will win over New Yorkers.  This powerful video shows just how far he will have to go to win.

Battleground State Breakdown

This is the point in a presidential election cycle when the "battleground states" – those which are undecided and likely to be close for the rest of the contest – begin to take shape.  That's in part because of state developments including "hot" state and congressional races and controversial ballot initiatives.  The hot races and ballot initiatives are critical in that they help drive voters to the polls and may have an impact on which presidential candidate wins the state.  Indeed, George W. Bush did as well as he did in some states during the 2000 and 2004 presidential because of the high turnouts attributed to the use of initiatives on gay marriage.  Following is a breakdown of five battleground states that Senators John McCain and Barack Obama are fighting over.

Virginia

Virginia has 13 electoral votes and Obama has a slim lead of about two points in most polls.  The race will be decided in the northern Washington, D.C. suburbs, where growth in the immigrant population, coupled with large numbers of hyper-education government contractors and technology workers have changed the demography of the region and made the state "bluer" in recent years.  There is also economic anxiety as the western D.C. suburbs are choking under the force of foreclosure rates that rival some of the worst in the country.

The hot race is for the 11th congressional district seat being vacated by Republican Representative Tom Davis, who is retiring.  Gerry Connolly, a popular Democrat, is poised to win the seat, which would represent a significant Democratic pickup.  There are also two former governors – Democrat Mark Warner and Republican Jim Gilmore – seeking to succeed retiring Senator John Warner.  Mark Warner’s lead is north of 20 points.

Much has been made of the “bluing” of Virginia and this election will show us just how much change has occurred in the Old Dominion.  Long a conservative bastion and birthplace of the Christian Conservative Movement, the state has begun a movement toward the Democratic Party. The current governor and his predecessor, who is contesting a U.S. Senate seat this year, both supported Obama and are putting their operations to work for him. The northern suburbs of Washington, D.C. have become home to many highly educated professionals and immigrants that have not been as receptive to the GOP’s message.  Obama also is doing surprisingly well in the Tidewater section of the state which, with its military bases and Rev. Pat Robertson, who is based in Virginia Beach, is usually solid Republican.  Virginia presents a big pickup opportunity for Obama.

Florida

Florida is the biggest prize among states that are too close to call and Obama has a three-point lead in a state that usually goes Republican.  There are two interesting races to watch, with Miami-area Representatives – Mario Diaz-Balart and Lincoln Diaz-Balart – both engaged in closer than expected contests. 

There are six ballot initiatives this year, some of which are likely to drive conservatives to the polls.  The most notable of the questions is one that will define marriage as a union between a husband and wife and does not recognize civil unions.  This could help McCain pull out a squeaker.

Florida, with it’s diverse mix of residents, has a history of close presidential contests.  This likely will be no different.  The Cuban population, which is critical in the southern part of the state, is going through a generation divide here with younger voters showing signs of breaking for Obama, the Democrat.  Cubans have historically been loyal to the GOP.

Ohio

Ohio, a perennial swing state, has 20 electoral votes and Obama is clinging to a two-point lead.  He will likely benefit from high turnout in the race to succeed retiring Republican Representative Deborah Pryce.  She barely beat Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy, who is back to take on Republican nominee Steve Stivers.

A ballot initiative on casino gaming in Wilmington, with statewide proceed distribution, could possibly help boost conservative turnout.  However, there aren’t any exceptionally controversial ballot initiatives this year and, given the drubbing the GOP took in 2006, there isn’t much of a Republican turnout infrastructure, so GOP turnout could be a problem.

Missouri

The “Show Me” state has 11 electoral votes and McCain has a two-point lead in most polls.  There is a hot House race featuring the former mayor of Kansas City trying to unseat a Republican incumbent.  There is a big ballot initiative that could spur Republican turnout – a constitutional change that would make English the official state language.  Obama barely squeaked by Hilary Clinton in the primary and Black turnout will be critical for him.  If Black voters show up in unusually high numbers, then Obama likely will win.

Colorado

Colorado’s nine electoral votes may be decisive this year and Obama holds a four-point lead.  Current Representative Mark Udall and former Representative Bob Schaffer are vying to succeed Senator Wayne Allard, who is retiring; Udall has a mid-single digit lead in most polls.

Colorado leads the nation with 18 ballot initiatives, some of which seem designed to bring Republicans to the polls including, abortion, anti-affirmative action, campaign finance reform, and a prohibition on mandatory labor union membership and dues.

Look for the Latino/Latina vote to play a big role here, as the proportion of voters in this bloc has increased tremendously over the years.  The Republican Party, through it’s immigration stance, has really been damaged among these voters, which complicates McCain’s task.  His western roots, coupled with a high conservative turnout may be enough to bring him across the line.

Sarah Palin?

So much for conventional wisdom. 

Senator John McCain has picked Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate.  She appears to have come out of nowhere with Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge, Minnessota Governor Tim Pawlenty, and Senator Joe Lieberman being seen as the likely contenders.  Palin had been mentioned, but she never seemed to be anything more than a second-tier choice.  Steve Heimel, a reporter/host for Alaska Public Radio, told CNN that even her staff didn't know that she was under serious consideration.

The Palin pick is certainly "out-of-the-box" thinking and a gamble.  It's also a reflection of the need for the McCain campaign to respond to the phenomenon that is Barack Obama.  McCain could not have gone with the "same old, same old" which is what many of his potential choices represent.  Obama's ascendancy has been a "game changer" and forces the Republicans to respond in different ways.  It's doubtful she would have been the pick if Hilary Clinton would have been the nominee. 

She's known as a reformer, ethically clean, and a conservative.  She's also under investigation for allegedly putting pressure on the state public safety commissioner regarding the firing of a state trooper who was married to Palin's sister.  She's also vastly inexperienced.  Her debate with Joe Biden on international issues will be very interesting to see.  McCain has constantly talked about the need to have someone in the White House experienced enough to deal with the war on terror.  It's difficult to argue that she adds anything in that regard.

More later . . .

A Republican Running Mate for Obama?

Barack Obama has built his reputation, in part, on his willingness to work across partisan lines.  I think bipartisanship is important at all levels of American politics.  Indeed, I argued that John Kerry should have picked Maine Senator Olympia Snowe as his running mate in 2004.  However, I have to question the Obama campaign's mental health if it is true that former Secretary of Agriculture, Ann Veneman, is on the short list.  The Nation picks up the story from here. 

I don't think he has to cross the line to find a running mate.  In fact, I think the progressive wing of the party would be greatly disappointed if he were to do so.

Interview Clip:  Michael Fauntroy Discusses Barack Obama on the Brian Lehrer Show (WNYC)

I, along with David Mark of The Politico, discussed Barack Obama's decision to forgo public financing of his general election campaign on the June 19 edition of The Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC in New York.  You can check out the discussion here.  Thanks to everyone on the show for having me.

While it's unlikely to be much of an issue this fall, I do think Obama's decision to solely go with privately raised funds really undermines progressive efforts to reduce the influence of money in elections.  Obama has raised and spent more than $250 million -- an incredible sum by almost any measure.  Yes, he has an unprecedented number of "small" donors, but the reality is that too much money is a problem in American elections.  He's the outlier, as it's unlikely other Democrats will be able to replicate the political tsunami that is fueling his campaign.

New Poll:  Obama, McCain, Nader, and Barr

A recently released CNN/Opinion Research poll shows the general election is starting as a close contest.  According to the poll, Barack Obama leads John McCain 49 percent to 46 percent among registered voters – a statistical tie, given the question's 3-point margin of error. 

The under-the-radar statistic in the poll is that Ralph Nader is polling at about six percent.  That’s enough of a following to potentially damage Obama in November.  Republicans hope that Nader will repeat his 2000 kneecapping of Vice President Al Gore (go back and look at West Virginia if you need a refresher), while Democrats hope Libertarian nominee former Representative Bob Barr will do for them what Nader did for the Grand Old Party.  Barr is polling at about two percent.  Nader and Barr will be factors in November if Obama or McCain fail to put some distance between one another.

Here’s the full story on the poll.

Obama or Clinton vs. McCain:  The Polls

There is a lot of talk from supporters of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton regarding how their candidate will do against John McCain in November.  While it is borderline irresponsible to look at polls in May to predict what will happen in November, I have found two sites which are notable.  I've linked to the Real Clear Politics (RCP) page, which regularly updates its poll data.  One finding:RCP's average of recent polls shows Clinton running better than McCain in Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.  Obama leads McCain in Pennsylvania and Ohio, but by smaller margins than Clinton; McCain leads Obama in Florida.  McCain beats Clinton in Wisconsin and Virginia.  Obama leads in Wisconsin while McCain is ahead in Virginia.

Newsweek has released a 20-page summary of a poll it recently conducted.  The poll shows Obama leading McCain by two points nationally; Clinton leads McCain by four points nationally (both spreads are within the margin of error).  The poll also lays out the Racial Resentment Index and how much of a climb Obama has with White general election voters.  Let the arguments begin!

McCain Removes Hagee from Around His Neck

Presumptive Republican presidential nominee John McCain didn't have a choice.  After kissing up to Reverend John Hagee in a pathetic attempt to win the support of religious conservatives, McCain has now "rejected" Hagee's support after the final in a series of controversial and, without question, politically poisonous statements made by the Reverend.  McCain merely squirmed -- but continued accepting Hagee's backing -- when Hagee was quoted referring to the Catholic Church as "the Great Whore" and suggesting that the devastation brought to New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina was God's response to the decadence of the Crescent City.  The recent revelation that Hagee played the Hitler-was-doing-God's-work-during-the-Holocaust card was the proverbial straw that broke the camels back.  There are no circumstances in which someone who believes what Hagee believes can be affiliated with any responsible person, certainly one who aspires to the presidency.

McCain did the right thing.  However, a few questions come to mind:  Didn't McCain know what this guy was about before he begged for the Reverend's endorsement?  If no, then why not?  How many other prominent religious conservatives believe what Hagee spouted?

You can read more here and here.

Here is an MSNBC News story on the issue.

Obama:  Yes or No?

The May issue of The Progressive magazine includes a very interesting cover story.  Writer Edwidge Danticat and Professor Adolph Reed, Jr. give their views of Barack Obama's presidential candidacy and what it could mean for the country.  Please check out the articles.  I think you'll find them very interesting.  There's something for Obama supporters and detractors to consider.  Kudos to The Progressive for taking the debate to a new level.

McCain’s Gamble

Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Senator John McCain is trying hard not to get lost in all the attention the country is devoting to the hard-fought Democratic presidential nomination contest. He is taking an unusual step in this regard for someone from the Grand Old Party (GOP): he’s touring mostly Black, poverty-ridden communities, such as last week’s trip to the Lower Ninth Ward in New Orleans, to speak out against poverty and other societal ills. These are the kinds of communities that most Republicans couldn’t find with a map and a Sherpa, so his “It’s Time for Action” tour is notable. While he should be commended for trying to address these issues and reach out to Black voters, the reality is that he is fighting against two important factors: history and his own Senate record.

Historically, Republican policy makers have not been particularly interested in the economic realities of the poor. From tax cuts to wealthier Americans on the mistaken notion that those new funds would be invested in America for the benefit of all, to vociferous fights against social programs that helped the poor, the GOP earned its reputation as the party for the rich. And McCain was there virtually every step of the way. The Reagan-driven massive shift of jobs to cheaper labor markets abroad took place on McCain’s watch. He supported the supply-side economic policies, also known as Reaganomics, that gave $750 billion in tax cuts and reduced support for human service programs by $280 billion. African Americans and the poor were disproportionately and negatively impacted by the economic policies of the 1980s, so there is a certain irony that McCain is touring areas and decrying poverty while his congressional history supported some of the policies that exacerbated the problem.

The GOP has also antagonized Black voters over the years through public policy and political symbolism, so it’s no surprise to me that McCain has a steep hill to climb. From Willie Horton to “reverse discrimination” to voter purge programs to the “welfare queen” to the “Southern strategy,” and beyond, his party has perversely used race to demonize African Americans and Black candidates to win elections. As I note in my book Republicans and the Black Vote, the Republican Party built its rise to national dominance during the 1980s and 1990s on racial animus and symbolism. Add to that McCain’s vote against both the Martin Luther King, Jr. Holiday Bill, and a relatively weak Civil Rights Act, and it’s difficult to see how McCain or any Republican can now be taken seriously on these important issues.

So, given party history and McCain’s record, you’ll have to forgive me for skeptically viewing McCain’s tour as a serious attempt to raise attention to the issue of poverty and reach out to Black voters. I see it, first and foremost, as a well-choreographed attempt to neutralize Independent voters who may move to the Democratic nominee if the GOP is seen as gratuitously hostile to minorities and the poor. Secondarily, it may be seen as an attempt to win Black support, particularly so if Senator Hillary Clinton emerges as the Democratic nominee. Clinton, in the eyes of many Black voters, can only win the nomination by stealing it from Senator Barack Obama. A Clinton nomination, then, could provide McCain with an opportunity to peel off some Black support and that of of White Independents.

McCain can travel to Selma, Alabama, Youngstown, Ohio, or New Orleans, Louisiana in an attempt to soften his image and that of his party, but history suggests that he won’t get very far in the process.

Michael K. Fauntroy is an assistant professor of public policy at George Mason University and author of the recently published book Republicans and the Black Vote. A registered Independent, he blogs at: www.MichaelFauntroy.com.

Pennsylvania Observations

After six weeks of campaigning, mudslinging, and silly questions to candidates befitting a B-level reality show, Pennsylvania Democrats finally had their say handing Senator Hillary Clinton a major victory over Senator Barack Obama.  The win may well be the worst of both worlds.  On the one hand, it gives Clinton added momentum and justification to continue in the race.  On the other hand, it raises legitimate questions about Obama’s ability to close the door on the nomination and lets fester concerns about his toughness.  That’s bad news for Democrats seeking closure in the nomination contest.

Clinton’s win was expected, but the margin exceeded most forecasts.  The punditocracy seemed to coalesce around the notion that a 10 percent or larger Clinton victory would be meaningful, contending that anything below that number would be a psychological win for Obama (Don’t you just love it when round numbers taken out of the sky are bandied about as rational?)  Her performance will temporarily quiet those who have called upon her to exit the race.  While it is still very unlikely she can win the nomination, her Keystone State win allows her to continue to craft an argument that she’s best positioned to win the states that Democrats will need in November.  She has won the popular vote in eight of the nine largest states (North Carolina, ranked 10th, will vote on May 6).  While two of those states – Florida and Michigan – require an asterisk, the reality is Clinton has done much better than Obama in the states that matter most to Democrats.

The Clinton coalition was as it has always been.  She won nearly 70 percent of votes from Catholics, 53 percent from Jewish voters, 56 percent of Protestants, and 63 percent of seniors (Pennsylvania is the second-oldest state in the country).  She carried late deciders, churchgoers of all frequencies, rural voters, and those without college degrees.  An interesting exit poll finding is that Iraq seems to be receding as an issue.  A New York Times exit poll indicated that 55 percent of voters identified the economy as the most important issue facing the country, nearly doubling the 28 percent of voters who identified the Iraq War as most important.  That statistic suggests that the ground may be shifting in a way that works against Obama’s campaign rationale.  What good is being a strong opponent of the war if it no longer matters as much to voters?

Obama has some reasons for optimism.  He won nearly two-thirds of 18-24 year old voters and, in what has to be an encouraging sign going forward, he also won a big majority of newly registered voters.  His ability to expand the electorate is amazing and presents a great base going into the general election, should he get that far.  He continued his overwhelming support among African Americans, winning 92 percent of the Black vote, and carried self-identified liberals.  An ominous sign, however, could be his showing among churchgoers; he won 56 percent of those who never attend church, while losing in all other categories.

While Obama is still the overwhelming favorite to win the nomination, he now has some nagging questions to answer.  Is his bulging war chest a cover for inherent weakness that could be exploited in a general election?  Why is he unable to close the deal in some of the biggest states?  Will he have to go negative to close out the race in North Carolina and Indiana on May 6?  What would going negative mean to his image as a “new” politician?

For all that we think we know after months and months of campaigning, in many ways, things are still unsettled.

Michael K. Fauntroy is an assistant professor of public policy at George Mason University and author of the recently released book Republicans and the Black Vote.  A registered Independent, he blogs at: www.MichaelFauntroy.com.

Gore-Obama 2008?

While some may think the worst is over, the reality is that White America’s response to the Reverend Jeremiah Wright’s recently revealed comments makes it impossible for Senator Barack Obama to win the presidency this year.  The history of race in American politics suggests a slow erosion of Obama’s general election support akin to other well qualified African Americans that come just short of the general election prize (e.g. Tom Bradley, Harvey Gantt, and Ron Kirk).  That, coupled with a potential defection of a sizable number of women who have become enraged at the establishment’s treatment of Senator Hillary Clinton, represent two major obstacles to his candidacy that Democratic party elites have to address as they prepare for the convention this summer.  Once the majordomos come to grips with the reality that Obama can’t win the presidency, they will begin to search for someone who can lead the Democrats back to the White House.  Obama won’t be pushed aside for Clinton (astronomically high negatives), as many have speculated.  Instead, he will grudgingly accept the invitation to run as former vice president Al Gore’s running mate.  A Gore-Obama ticket is the only way to save the Democrats from a nomination disaster that increases the likelihood that Senator John McCain will be elected president.

This will be a difficult pill for Obama supporters to swallow, particularly among those who seem to view him as a political Messiah.  Many have marveled at his ability to “transcend” race and win White voters. They see his ability to be popular with White voters as evidence that he can win the general election.  Moreover, much of Obama’s attraction to White voters is that he is not a scary Black candidate like Jesse Jackson or Al Sharpton.  The reaction to Wright’s comments has put the lie to this view and destabilized Obama's support.  Yes, I know that Democratic voters seem to be forgiving Obama, but it’s the general election that matters most and there is scant evidence that the reaction to Wright won’t play into the November balloting.

The truth is that many of the same White voters that have gleefully supported Obama have suddenly been spooked by the Wright revelations and are less likely to take a chance on Obama in November.  They wonder if they really knew their favorite and have now been primed to sniff out anything else that could reveal Obama to not be what they thought he was (beware the patriotism card).

While the immediate aftermath was probably an overreaction, polling suggests an ominous story in the offing –  56 percent of those surveyed in a Rasmussen poll said Wright’s comments made them less likely to vote for Obama.  Those numbers have likely moderated somewhat, but we’re in for a roller-coaster ride as more of Wright’s speeches become more widely known.  As they are, the independent voters that are likely to determine the general election winner will quite likely move into McCain’s column.  Believe me, the Republicans have staff dedicated solely to combing through Wright’s sermons and public statements as well as those of anyone else close to Obama for use of dislodging the support of White independents from Obama.

The bottom line is that the reaction and furor over clips circulating around the Internet of Rev. Jeremiah Wright demonstrates clearly and convincingly that the talk of how far America has come in terms of race and politics is premature.  Indeed, it shows that we haven’t come as far as some would suggest we have when it comes to race and politics. 

Gore-Obama is the only salve that will heal the developing wound in the Democratic Party.  It keeps African Americans in the game as Gore is more popular with Black voters than Bill Clinton was in his two wins (Gore received 90 percent of the Black vote in 2000 eclipsed Clinton’s percentage in 1992 and 1996).  It puts Obama on the international stage in a more substantive way than he could ever be as a Senator and, also, keeps him in line to be the first Black President of the United States.

A lot has been written and said about what is best for the Democratic Party and that Hillary Clinton should step aside.  The reality is that both Clinton and Obama, for all their obvious and substantial talents, are substantially flawed and vulnerable in their bids to take on John McCain.  Al Gore is the antidote to all that ails the Democrats – if only they open their eyes.

Michael K. Fauntroy is an assistant professor public policy at George Mason University where he teaches courses in American government and politics.  He is the author of the recently published book Republicans and the Black Vote.  A registered Independent, he blogs at www.MichaelFauntroy.com.

Email Factcheck

I'm sure by now you've seen the email that has been rocketing through cyberspace which compares the legislative records of Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.  The email professes to demonstrate how Obama is a far more productive legislator than Clinton ("He's not just a talker.  He's a doer").  Well, Newsweek examined the claims made in the email.  You can read it here.

Radio Interview Clip—Michael Fauntroy Discusses Super Tuesday on NPR’s News and Notes

Here is a clip from the Monday, February 4, 2008 edition of NPR's News and Notes where I, along with UCLA's Mark Sawyer, discuss Super Tuesday.